Softer wholesale inflation, lower Treasury yields, falling oil and another record close for the S&P 500.
Thursday’s session looked straightforward on the surface: softer wholesale inflation, lower Treasury yields, falling oil and another record close for the S&P 500. The more interesting story sat underneath. The rally broadened beyond a handful of megacaps, yet the market…
Thursday’s session looked straightforward on the surface: softer wholesale inflation, lower Treasury yields, falling oil and another record close for the S&P 500. The more interesting story sat underneath. The rally broadened beyond a handful of megacaps, yet the market simultaneously became more demanding inside the AI trade. Strong demand is still showing up across memory, networking, semiconductor equipment and global hardware. What investors are increasingly refusing to do is treat every piece of AI exposure as sufficient reason to pay a higher multiple.
The S&P 500 rose 0.65% to a record 7,798.99, the Nasdaq gained 0.81%, and the Dow edged up just 0.13%. The Dow’s relative weakness was less an economic signal than an index-construction issue: Cisco’s 8.4% decline alone weighed heavily on the price-weighted index, while several of the day’s strongest AI and memory names are not Dow components. The broader tape was healthier than the Dow suggested. The equal-weight S&P 500 also reached a record, the Russell 2000 finished at a new high, and advancing stocks comfortably outnumbered decliners.
That breadth matters because it gives the inflation story more credibility. July producer prices were unchanged month over month, below expectations, and Treasury yields fell. At the same time, the labor market did not deteriorate enough to turn the session into a recession trade: initial jobless claims rose only moderately. The combination is closer to what equity investors want to see — inflation pressure easing without an obvious collapse in employment.
The second major thread came from AI infrastructure. Cisco, Cerebras and Applied Materials all delivered some version of the same message: demand remains strong, but expectations are now high enough that strong operating results can coexist with falling share prices. Lenovo’s 20% surge in Hong Kong after record revenue tied partly to AI infrastructure strengthens the demand case from outside the U.S. market. That is increasingly important. The AI-capex debate is becoming less about whether spending is happening and more about who captures acceptable margins and returns on that spending.
The third thread was oil. Brent fell more than 2% to $87.07 despite continuing tension over the Strait of Hormuz and a reported Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery. A 17.4-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories and weaker demand expectations carried more weight during the session than geopolitical scarcity. Gold also fell about 1%, while Treasury yields declined. Taken together, those cross-asset moves suggest Thursday’s dominant impulse was easing inflation anxiety rather than generalized fear.