Market Intelligence — August 14, 2026

Friday begins with a more complicated version of Thursday’s constructive setup. The S&P 500 enters the session after its 27th record close of the year, and this week’s CPI and PPI reports have reduced the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates in September.…

Friday begins with a more complicated version of Thursday’s constructive setup. The S&P 500 enters the session after its 27th record close of the year, and this week’s CPI and PPI reports have reduced the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates in September. But the consumer has now supplied a less comfortable datapoint: July retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% from June, versus expectations for a small increase. At the same time, oil has turned higher after two more commercial vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, while Applied Materials is falling despite results and guidance that were objectively strong. Put together, the morning is asking three related questions. Is softer inflation becoming softer demand? Can the market continue rewarding the AI capital cycle while punishing individual suppliers whose margins or growth fail to clear increasingly demanding expectations? And can the inflation relief survive if Middle East energy risk begins feeding back into crude, freight and gasoline?