U.S. equity futures are calm enough to suggest continuity, but the evidence underneath them is becoming more discriminating.

Monday opens with an unusual combination: U.S. equity futures are calm enough to suggest continuity, but the evidence underneath them is becoming more discriminating. Nasdaq-100 futures are outperforming as memory and storage shares extend last week’s rally; the S&P 500 is…

Monday opens with an unusual combination: U.S. equity futures are calm enough to suggest continuity, but the evidence underneath them is becoming more discriminating. Nasdaq-100 futures are outperforming as memory and storage shares extend last week’s rally; the S&P 500 is hovering close to another record; the Dow is slightly softer. At the same time, China has delivered a materially weaker domestic-demand picture, Japan’s long bond yields have pushed to three-decade highs despite disappointing growth, and the American consumer is about to face a week of unusually useful corporate cross-examination.

The central question is no longer simply whether inflation has cooled enough to keep the Fed on hold. Last week largely answered that in the affirmative at the margin. The more interesting question is whether the slowdown now appearing in U.S. consumption remains benign enough for earnings to carry the market. Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s and Walmart will give us evidence from inside household budgets rather than from another aggregate data release.