Wednesday opens with a useful change in the market’s stress point.

Wednesday opens with a useful change in the market’s stress point. The violent global bond selloff that dominated Tuesday has eased, but technology has not immediately recovered with it. S&P 500 and Dow futures are roughly flat while Nasdaq futures remain slightly negative…

Wednesday opens with a useful change in the market’s stress point. The violent global bond selloff that dominated Tuesday has eased, but technology has not immediately recovered with it. S&P 500 and Dow futures are roughly flat while Nasdaq futures remain slightly negative after Tuesday’s semiconductor-led rout. That separation matters: yesterday’s pressure began as a discount-rate problem, but this morning investors are also questioning how much AI optimism is already embedded in prices.

The consumer is supplying a second, more nuanced message. Target raised its annual sales outlook after another strong quarter, while Lowe’s cut its targets as DIY demand remained weak and TJX Companies raised its annual profit forecast but guided the current quarter below expectations. Taken together, the reports do not describe a consumer in free fall. They describe one who is highly selective—responsive to lower prices, value and convenience, while remaining reluctant to commit to large home-related projects.

Meanwhile, oil has reached a three-week high as commercial shipping through Hormuz remains heavily impaired. That leaves the Fed facing an increasingly awkward mix ahead of this afternoon’s July meeting minutes: recent domestic demand and inflation data argue for patience, but energy and long-duration borrowing costs continue to threaten the benign disinflation narrative.